Polymarket World Cup: Record June Volume as Traders Go Head-to-Head

Prediction markets have experienced record-breaking volume throughout June and July, driven heavily by trading on the 2026 FIFA World Cup. In June, trading volumes exceeded $50 billion across all the major prediction markets platforms.

Polymarket alone had a notional volume of $10.7 billion, beating March’s record of $10.5 billion. Polymarket US had a notional volume of $3.5 billion in June. 

Due to the way prediction markets work, every market pits traders against each other. Looking at Polymarket specifically, on-chain data from Arkham’s Prediction Market analytics tool reveals massive high-stakes trades as whales bet big on the tournament’s knockout stages.

The $5.15M Argentina Long

A prediction market trader using the handle “gud.h1” deployed $1 million on Argentina to win the entire tournament. Following Argentina’s 2-1 semi-final victory over England, the trader's position is now up approximately $3.9 million in unrealized profit.

The current value of the position stands at roughly $5.15 million. The trader’s overall account shows a total profit and loss (PnL) of +$3.88 million, dominated by this single Argentina holding. If Argentina secures the trophy, gud.h1 stands to win over $12 million. 

The question now is: will they cash out their unrealized gains, or hold the position until the final whistle?

The $1.5M England Liquidation

Arkham’s prediction market tools also highlighted a trader known as “englandsaveme” who suffered a huge loss. The freshly funded account, created in July 2026, was the largest single bettor on the England vs Argentina match, wagering $1.48 million in volume on England in the "Team to Advance" market.

After Fernández scored for Argentina with just five minutes left in regular time, Martínez then scored shortly afterward in extra time to secure the victory. The position resolved to zero, wiping out the position. Arkham’s dashboard confirms the wallet’s total PnL sits at -$1.51 million.

Who Will Win It All?

According to current Arkham dashboard metrics, Spain is the favorite to win the final at 57.9%, while Argentina sits at 41.6%. You can track live prediction market whales, trace historical PnL, and set real-time transaction alerts all on the official Arkham Intel platform.