How To Understand And Track Iranian Crypto Exchange Outflows

Outflows from Iranian crypto exchanges – like Nobitex – spiked aggressively in the hours after the launch of the US/Israeli airstrikes. 

‍Nobitex is Iran’s biggest exchange with $86 million in digital assets, most of which is held in BTC. However, this is down from a peak of >$500M last year, after they were hacked by Gonjeshke Darande, a pro-Israel group. You can interact with Nobitex’s Arkham entity page below:

Nobitex

Nobitex rapidly saw outflows after the recent strikes, with multiple 5 figure transfers out of the Nobitex entity and no equivalent inflows. The timing was precise. Airstrikes began at 06:15 GMT and capital flight followed almost immediately.

When looking just at BTC, we can see how Nobitex’s holdings of BTC have slid over the course of the conflict. Select 'Token Balances History' in the interactive window below to see Nobitex's declining BTC stack.

What Explains The Outflows? 

While the Arkham data shows a clear surge in outflows from Nobitex, the "why" behind the movement typically falls into three categories:

Retail Flight to Self-Custody: Ordinary Iranian citizens pull assets off centralized exchanges into private wallets as a hedge against domestic instability, currency collapse, or internet blackouts.

Exchange Liquidity Management: Exchanges like Nobitex may move funds to new addresses to obfuscate activity from sanctions monitors. Given that Nobitex suffered a $90 million exploit in 2025, cybersecurity and wallet rotation are now standard operational procedures.

State-Linked Activity: Historically, state-aligned actors and entities linked to the IRGC have utilized mainstream domestic exchanges to move funds for sanctions evasion or proxy financing. During a military escalation, these actors may move liquidity through domestic rails to ensure theater-ready capital.

Nobitex has links to sanctioned Russian crypto exchange Garantex as well as the company behind the ruble stablecoin A7A5. We wrote an explainer on A7A5 here.